What are my chances that MGUS turns into multiple myeloma?

Posted by dtrgran59 @dtrgran59, Aug 5, 2025

What are my chances that MGUS turns into multiple melanoma
What precautions can I do?

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I've read that 1 percent of MGUS patients per year progress to MM.

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Yes, I was diagnosed with MGUS but I'm not sure when. I am followed by a great hematologist, so I trust her to let me know if I need to worry.

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Profile picture for sparksalt6 @sparksalt6

@rimord

Sorry, but what is SMM?

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SMM stands for smoldering multiple myeloma. Sometimes multiple myeloma doesn't cause symptoms. Doctors call this smoldering multiple myeloma. This kind of multiple myeloma might not need treatment right away.

@sparksalt6, have you been diagnosed with MGUS? How are you doing?

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Profile picture for rimord @rimord

I believe 1% of MGUS patients progress to full-blown MM. It's a rare malady to begin with. It occurs in only .5% of the population, more so in Blacks, for some reason. If you can get through the first five years of SMM, the chances of it progressing to MM go down. There's a lot of information on the Multiple Myeloma Research Foundation website and, of course, Dr. Google.

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@rimord

Sorry, but what is SMM?

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Profile picture for Patty, Volunteer Mentor @pmm

@rimord and @redvrm yes, although there are different classifications of MGUS with different risk stratification. Then age and coexisting conditions are also a consideration.
The best person to consult about this is your hematologist/oncologist.
But…
“The three major risk factors for the progression of MGUS are an abnormal serum FLC ratio (i.e., the ratio of free immunoglobulin κ to λ light chains in the serum), non-IgG MGUS, and a high serum M protein level (≥1.5 g/dL) (Figure 1)11,43. Based on the Mayo Clinic’s stratification model, the presence of all three factors constitutes high-risk MGUS. High-intermediate-risk MGUS is present if any two of the factors are present, low-intermediate-risk MGUS is present if any one of the three factors is present, and the absence of all three factors is classified as low-risk MGUS. The risk of progression to LPM at 20 years when one, two, and three risk factors are present is 5%, 21%, and 58%, respectively.”
From the publication below, based on Mayo Clinic’s risk stratification methodology.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9720897/
Will you let me know how this goes for you?

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@pmm Thank you for your thoughtful reply! I'll have to absorb it.

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Profile picture for rimord @rimord

I believe 1% of MGUS patients progress to full-blown MM. It's a rare malady to begin with. It occurs in only .5% of the population, more so in Blacks, for some reason. If you can get through the first five years of SMM, the chances of it progressing to MM go down. There's a lot of information on the Multiple Myeloma Research Foundation website and, of course, Dr. Google.

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@rimord and @redvrm yes, although there are different classifications of MGUS with different risk stratification. Then age and coexisting conditions are also a consideration.
The best person to consult about this is your hematologist/oncologist.
But…
“The three major risk factors for the progression of MGUS are an abnormal serum FLC ratio (i.e., the ratio of free immunoglobulin κ to λ light chains in the serum), non-IgG MGUS, and a high serum M protein level (≥1.5 g/dL) (Figure 1)11,43. Based on the Mayo Clinic’s stratification model, the presence of all three factors constitutes high-risk MGUS. High-intermediate-risk MGUS is present if any two of the factors are present, low-intermediate-risk MGUS is present if any one of the three factors is present, and the absence of all three factors is classified as low-risk MGUS. The risk of progression to LPM at 20 years when one, two, and three risk factors are present is 5%, 21%, and 58%, respectively.”
From the publication below, based on Mayo Clinic’s risk stratification methodology.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9720897/
Will you let me know how this goes for you?

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I believe 1% of MGUS patients progress to full-blown MM. It's a rare malady to begin with. It occurs in only .5% of the population, more so in Blacks, for some reason. If you can get through the first five years of SMM, the chances of it progressing to MM go down. There's a lot of information on the Multiple Myeloma Research Foundation website and, of course, Dr. Google.

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Profile picture for redvrm @redvrm

i am 95 tears old. was being tested ea year for signsof myelome finsllymydrbwasrestiring a nd he
sta tes that i dinot need to continue blood test, lo and behold my son is 67 and recently fell out of
jis bed and after several emergency he was kept n hosipital. alwa ys hurting inchest. r informed me after
blood test that he had myelom any one /. is this does this seem lik heridtyi

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@redvrm greetings and welcome to the Mayo Clinic’s Connect. There is a higher risk within families of multiple myeloma patients for also contracting the disease.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/multiple-myeloma/symptoms-causes/syc-20353378
Although MGUS is considered a benign, pre-cancerous condition, there is a risk of progression to Multiple myeloma.
There has been a great deal of improvement in the treatment available for multiple myeloma, although I am sure that it is worrisome for you that your son has been diagnosed with this disease. Have his medical providers, determined what treatment he will receive? Sometimes even after diagnosis with multiple myeloma, they opt not to treat right away.

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i am 95 tears old. was being tested ea year for signsof myelome finsllymydrbwasrestiring a nd he
sta tes that i dinot need to continue blood test, lo and behold my son is 67 and recently fell out of
jis bed and after several emergency he was kept n hosipital. alwa ys hurting inchest. r informed me after
blood test that he had myelom any one /. is this does this seem lik heridtyi

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