@gloaming "Once you see a single morning's recording more than about 4% higher than the running average, it's a sign of an infection, inflammation, tissue damage, or overuse (meaning don't exercise that day...at all! Maybe not the next day either for extra insurance)."
Were did you get this information? I would love to read the paper you lifted this quote. How about some links to peer reviewed articles. Right now this does not make sense.