@mattymatilda I think that’s because there are several variables involved. It’s not a static number. I got this from the myeloma association.
Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance (MGUS) and smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) are both clonal plasma cell proliferative disorders that can progress to multiple myeloma (MM):
MGUS
Affects about 3% of people over 50 and 5% over 70, and has a 1% per year risk of progressing to MM. MGUS is usually asymptomatic and is often discovered by chance during blood tests for other reasons. Risk factors for MGUS progressing to MM include M-protein levels over 1.5 g/dL, the size and type of M protein, the number of bone marrow plasma cells, and FLC ratio results.
SMM
An intermediate stage between MGUS and MM, SMM is characterized by more than 3 g/dL of serum M protein and more than 10% clonal plasma cells in the bone marrow, but without evidence of end-organ damage. SMM is asymptomatic, but has a 10 times higher risk of progressing to MM than MGUS in the first five years after diagnosis. Positive PET/CT results are also associated with a higher risk of progression to symptomatic disease.