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The OncotypeDX gives a 'risk of recurrence within 9 years' number, given as a % (probability) of recurrence, conditional upon taking aromatase inhibitors or tamoxifen.
It does not give a probability of recurrence if one declines anti-hormone therapy. One can however calculate that drug-free risk using industry estimates of the benefit of the anti-hormone drugs. The rough calculation would be to double that risk number to get rough idea of added risk of not taking anti-hormone therapy.
15% of people who take the OncotypeDX get a risk score of 3% or less with the majority of those cases also having had cancer-free sentinel lymph node negative biopsies. [I confirmed this number with Exact Sciences, the purveyor of the OncotypeDX, recently as there's misinformation on Mayo Connect stating that 30% of the OncotypeDX tests yield 3% risk of lower. That is incorrect.]
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I was not on that medicine-just Arimidex-anastrole but made it for 11 yrs with recurrence in bones and some signs in other organs
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I asked Exact Sciences about the risk of 'spread' versus recurrence since the OncotypeDX (the test I had) doesn't specifically predict that. The answer is interesting and the person in the science section whom I spoke with is sending me more info. But, basically, the same TaylorRX data pool from which Oncotype based much of its algorithm (not a good explanation but to keep things simple) also included 'spread' as well as recurrence statistics. Inferentially, a low risk of distant recurrence correlates with, also, a low risk for spread from cancer site assuming clean margins. Cancer-free lymph nodes lowers that risk further. If only we could get 100% perfect data, decisions would be so much easier, sigh. But at least we have better tools than women even 20 years ago.