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@callalloo

Yes. I have a theoretical "risk of loco-regional (aka anywhere in the body) breast cancer recurrence within 9 years" of 3% if the OncotypeDX test is valid. (And two oncologists I consulted with believe it is though, as with most medical stuff, there are no guarantees).

The 3% risk assumes that I did not have radiation or chemo and take either tamoxifen or aromatase inhibitors.

My oncologist and the oncology radiologist both insisted that that 3% risk was based on my having radiation and they were both wrong. The OncotypeDX does not lead to any treatment inferences except whether the patient risk/reward profile suggested a benefit from chemo. [A low risk score does not.]

Assuming that adjuvant anti-hormone therapy reduces risk of recurrence by 40-45%, I declined the anti-hormone drugs. That would leave me with an approximate 5% recurrence risk. Or, to put it another way, a 95% chance that the cancer will not recur within 9 years.

I declined radiation as well because, before we received the Oncotype DX result, the radiologist cited the usual stats that breast cancer could recurrence in the exact same site as 10%. And radiation could reduce that to 2% statistically-speaking. But the radiation would only protect that one tiny area, not even the rest of the breast, and no other part if the body. I said "Nope" to radiation after getting the Oncotype genetic testing as I don't have the 10% general statistical risk so the risk/reward payoff for radiation wasn't there. [The major risks, in my opinion, being any radiation in the left breast being nearer the heart and lymphedema. There are other risks but these were the big two for me.

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Replies to "Yes. I have a theoretical "risk of loco-regional (aka anywhere in the body) breast cancer recurrence..."

Those docs may have assumed you had radiation since most folks who have lumpectomies seem to. In fact, I had mastectomies to avoid radiation. So they were assuming a norm. And confused it with a prerequisite.

Tests like Prosigna Assay and Breast Cancer Index consider a 5% risk to be "high risk." It is hard to know whom to believe. I do know that risk goes up with hormone-driven cancers. Triple negative cases are higher risk at first but if they make it 5 years, they can be reassured (or so I have read). But hormonal cancers continue to rise in risk, unfortunately.

And guess what? Oncotype, Prosigna and Breast Cancer Index all have different results for me! The Oncotype is best for the time of diagnosis, in regard to benefit of chemo. It has changed the course of treatment for so many. a wonderful thing.