@joelars I see a lot of numbers and percentages here. As a self-described research nerd, I am curious about the source of numbers for your calculations and the underlying assumptions in making them.
Remember that covid-19 is a new virus in humans and noone has immunity yet. While it currently seems to be mild in much of the population, we are seeing how it spreads rapidly and can overwhelm our medical care system very quickly. We also do not know how it will mutate as it progresses, and it could potentially increase in lethality.
The reality is that if we do not do something to try to "flatten the curve" our resources will be overwhelmed. Look at China and Italy, the situations there are the reason for the current initiatives here.
This morning I spoke to an ER nurse in a metro area of 3 million people. Their current metrowide inventory of available ICU beds is under 20. To say the medical professionals are alarmed is a gross understatement. In the event of a rapid increase in critical cases, who gets care and who dies? Who decides?
We know that most people will get covid-19, and a significant number will get quite ill, requiring hospitalization. We also know that if we "flatten the curve", drawing out the period of time for spreading the infection, that the system will be able to absorb the caseload. With enough time, a vaccine may even come available to protect the most vulnerable among us. Something else to consider: if covid-19 overwhelms the care system, young healthy people will not be able to get care either, for unrelated illnesses, accidents or injuries...so it is in everyones' interest to sacrifice for the common good.
I believe this is a fairly long-term situation we will be dealing with, but adjustment is possible. We are already seeing that there will be economic pain, and if all of our businesses and government at all levels pull together to make things work, we will weather it.
Like some others here, my milennial children and nieces and nephews are adapting, figuring out how to survive and help those around them. If anything, they feel we are not taking the concept of social isolation seriously enough.
Suggesting that a society not do whatever it can protect the vulnerable because it is costly and economically painful horrifies me. I have no other word for it.
Sue
PS Some people do remember being "locked down" or quarantined due to a pandemic - it was called polio, and while I have no knowledge of what it did to the stock market, it sure affected our lives before vaccine was available.

Jump to this post