← Return to COVID-19 Coronavirus and Lung Health: What can you do?

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@merpreb

@contentandwell- There's no doubt that the US admin dropped the bomb on this one. Italy has a fantastic health care system but they are overwhelmed as well. There are three phases of this pandemic:
https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/09-03-2020/the-three-phases-of-covid-19-and-how-we-can-make-it-manageable/
Our aim is to stay in phase one. The longer we can stay in phase one, the better we can prepare for phase two. If we can stay here for the next one to two years, then hopefully a vaccine will become available and we can avoid phases two and three altogether. One way to do that would be just to ban all international travel. No one in or out. Just to be clear, I don’t think this is the right approach to take. One to two years is a long time.

Alternatively, we could just make everyone who travels here, Kiwis included, go into isolation for two weeks. Again, I’m not sure how well this would work in practice. My advice to everyone, even if you haven’t traveled, is to be on the lookout for any of the symptoms of Covid-19. If you have a fever, or a cough, or shortness of breath, stay away from other people if you can. If you have a runny nose or sore throat this could be a really mild form of Covid-19 so I would also isolate yourself.
Phase two – community transmission

The way Covid-19 is playing out globally, we are going to enter phase two at some point. This will happen when people who don’t realize they have contracted Covid-19 go about their daily lives rather than stay isolated. More and more cases will be reported each day as the virus transmits from person to person out in the community and outpaces our ability to keep up with the contact tracing. The quicker and higher the numbers rise, the more likely the outbreak will overwhelm us, making it harder to control.

The data so far suggests all of us are susceptible to the virus. It’s clear from what’s happened overseas that many people with Covid-19 spent many weeks being treated in hospital before they recovered. This isn’t a trivial disease. China built two new hospitals in a matter of weeks to keep up with demand. Do we have the resources to do that if it came to it?
Flattening the curve

Our aim will be to keep phase two of the epidemic curve as flat as possible, keeping the number of cases reported each day as low as we can. If we can achieve that, it’ll mean we’ll be able to treat everyone who needs treatment. We can all help with this by washing our hands regularly, avoiding touching our mouth, nose, and eyes, and staying away from other people when we are sick. This also means calling ahead if you feel sick and want to go to the doctor or hospital. The last thing we need is loads of our healthcare workers in isolation because they’ve been exposed to Covid-19. Forty-five staff from North Shore Hospital have been isolated as a precaution because of a probable cause.

Another thing we are all going to need to start doing soon is minimizing or avoiding contact with other people. This is called social distancing. If you are greeting people, don’t hug, shake hands, hongi, or kiss. Bump elbows or feet instead. Work from home if you can. Much as it pains me to say it, social distancing also means avoiding public transport (get on your bicycle!). Similarly, it means avoiding gyms, churches, cinemas, concerts, and other events and places where people congregate. At the community level we may need to close schools, universities, museums, and workplaces limit public transportation and cancel public events. This is what China did so effectively and what Italy is currently implementing in some regions.
Moving into phase three

We move into phase three when the outbreak is either brought under control or everyone has been infected and there are no more susceptible people left to infect. Vaccination is one way we can stop people from being susceptible, or at least enough people that the disease stops spreading from person-to-person – that’s what herd immunity is all about.

Given we are one to two years away from a vaccine, bringing Covid-19 under control is obviously the goal here and what China has achieved. But if there are still susceptible people in a population and we stop taking all the right measures then we will see cases flare up again.

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Replies to "@contentandwell- There's no doubt that the US admin dropped the bomb on this one. Italy has..."

@merpreb Good article that you have included the link to and quoted here. Let's hope a vaccine is not as far away as the article suggests. If there were vaccinations for previous coronaviruses I would think it could be quicker since this is effectively a variation of them. Every year they come up with a new variation of the flu vaccine to ward of the current mutation, so why is this different?

This specifically mentions gyms so I guess I have made the right decision in suspending my gym activity. As I said in a different post, I think we all need to take responsibility to practice social distancing, which includes for a while not going to places where we could spread this if we have it and are not yet symptomatic.
JK