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Thoughts on CA19 behavior close to nadir

Pancreatic Cancer | Last Active: 4 hours ago | Replies (18)

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I would find this pattern much more reassuring than concerning. A CA 19-9 change from 56 to 61 is only about a 9% increase and, by itself, is not evidence that the chemotherapy has stopped working.

Your overall trend is:

466 → 573 → 481 → 326 → 273 → 139 → 108 → 90 → 56 → 61

That's roughly an 87% reduction from 466 to 61. More importantly, your CT is showing objective improvement: the pancreatic tumor decreased from 6 × 5 cm to 4 × 3 cm, the liver metastases are no longer visible, and the lung disease is stable or decreasing. Imaging generally carries considerably more weight than one small tumor-marker fluctuation.

CA 19-9 also doesn't have to behave like a smooth mathematical curve as it approaches its lowest level. There is no requirement that it gradually slow down before reaching a nadir or before eventually rising. It can plateau, fluctuate up and down, fall again, or remain relatively stable for some time. Inflammation, biliary issues, liver conditions and changes in blood-glucose control can also affect CA 19-9.

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Replies to "I would find this pattern much more reassuring than concerning. A CA 19-9 change from 56..."

@mcharlesfrancis unfortunately I took today another blood test after 4 weeks of chemo holiday and CA19 went from 61 to 69. we are still talking about relatively small increases but it's already two subsequent upticks. Haven't been careful with diet thought and my fasting glucose went from 105 to 160+ (have diabetes 2). this can potentially explain this second increase but two subsequent upticks are still strongly suspicious. Next week CT scan will hopefully tell.