@sueinmn I wasn’t commenting on the wisdom of watchful waiting, only speaking to spontaneous conversion rates. Many patients who watchful wait never spontaneously convert, but also never develop disease to a point where treatment with antibiotics is necessary for them. I am sure they see that as a win regardless. As for the specific topic of spontaneous conversion rates, I think it’s a matter of going to the source data and reading that carefully. I see now the discussion in @pacathy’s linked article, but the source material does not say what the article says. It’s like a game of scientific telephone. The study you link doesn’t seem to address spontaneous conversion at all. Maybe you accidentally linked the wrong thing. In any event, I stand by my original statement that disease progression, or the lack thereof, seems to have everything to do with one’s odds of spontaneous conversion. And many factors influence each individual’s risk of progression. If anyone is interested in reading more about the factors influencing their specific risk of progression start with the studies underlying the 2020 treating guidelines. And of course, talk to your medical team.