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Profile picture for Jeff Marchi @jeffmarc

@rlpostrp
The statistics seem to show that 50% of the people that are on active surveillance will need treatment within 10 years.. My brother got six years out of it. Nice to be able to go a period of time without having treatment.

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Replies to "@rlpostrp The statistics seem to show that 50% of the people that are on active surveillance..."

@jeffmarc Did your source say what happens to the other 50% in that ten years? Did "none" of them need any treatment, and they died of other things during that ten years? I am sure that wrapped up in that 50% is a certain percentage of men who succumbed to prostate cancer vs those who got lucky and needed nothing before they died of something else. Man...that is a big "roll of the dice". Like you said about your brother, he got 6 years out of AS. I am sure that others get only 2-3 years, while others get 12-15 years. Such a strange disease.

@jeffmarc

A study at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, of 2664 men who were diagnosed with GG1, indicated that 76% were still on AS after 5 years, 64% after 10 years and 58% after 15 years.

The amazing thing is that only two men were deemed to have a disease that could have been cured on immediate treatment. The risk of distant metastasis was 0.6% at 10 years.

Some GG1 men will think they want treatment because they’re concerned with the possibility of being one of the 2 out of 2664 who developed metastasis after 10 years.

I wonder if this study had been properly explained to those diagnosed with GG1, who chose immediate treatment, ended up putting themselves at unnecessary risk for negative treatment side effects by submitting to immediate treatment.

This is the contention of Dr. Matt Cooperberg of UCSF.

The other interesting thing is that 25% of those that go off AS have no “trigger” reason….probably just anxiety…
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7480884/