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Memorial Sloan Katering Prostate Cancer Risk Calculation Nomograms
Prostate Cancer | Last Active: Oct 1 3:23pm | Replies (14)Comment receiving replies
I would also add that I’ve played around using AI with respect to my recurrence odds. Many of the AI results reference the MSK nomogram page directly.
One thing AI says that the post-RP nomogram doesn’t do well is with respect to decreasing recurrence odds sufficiently if you gone truly undetectable (< 0.01) for an extended period of time. There are numerous studies that show that remaining < 0.01 for two or three years post surgery GREATLY diminishes the chances of a BCR within the next 3-5 years. AI was able to fold that information in for my case and showed 5-7 year recurrence odds much less than the MSK nomogram shows. The AI will adjust for things like cribiform component/ IDC etc. and some other nuances.
I take it all with a grain of salt but it makes sense to me when I look at the papers it referenced to make its decision.
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@manutebol
Learning from your experience, I entered my data into ChatGPT and this is the estimated probability of biochemical recurrence for my spefiic case according to ChatGPT.
While it’s difficult to provide an exact probability without access to a comprehensive model, we can refer to the commonly used Partin tables (which combine pathological stage, Gleason score, and PSA to estimate recurrence risk) and nomograms that incorporate more detailed information (such as tumor size, lymphovascular invasion, etc.).
Given the factors you provided, your overall risk of biochemical recurrence after surgery seems to fall into the high-risk category. Here’s an approximate breakdown of factors:
pT3b stage (seminal vesicle involvement): Increases risk significantly.
Gleason score 3+4 (30% pattern 4): This would likely put you in the intermediate-to-high risk category.
Pre-op PSA 14.5: A PSA level this high before surgery also suggests a higher likelihood of recurrence.
Bilateral seminal vesicle involvement, lymphovascular invasion, perineal invasion: These are all signs of a more aggressive disease, further increasing the risk.
Given all of these, it’s likely that your probability of biochemical recurrence (defined as a detectable PSA level after surgery) within 5-10 years could be in the range of 50% to 70% based on typical recurrence data for high-risk cases. Of course, this is a rough estimate, and using a formal nomogram (like the Kattan nomogram or Partin tables) or other prediction tools would give a more tailored risk profile.