Connect
Memorial Sloan Katering Prostate Cancer Risk Calculation Nomograms
Memorial Sloan Katering has excellent pre- and post-radical prostatectomy nomograms which can be used by patients before or after their surgical treatment for prostate cancer to enter their data and calculate risks. For example, the post-surgery nomogram predicts the probability of remaining cancer recurrence-free at two, five, seven, and ten years following surgery.
To get your particular result, you enter your age, pre-treatment PSA, biopsy Gleason score, clinical tumor state (e.g. T3b in my case), pathological results (organ-confined or not, extracapsular extension, lymph node involvement, seminal vescible invasion, number of biopsy positive cores etc.) and voila, the system generates the % probability for your 15 yr prostate-cancer specific survival, and progression-free probability after surgery in 5 yrs, 10 yrs etc.
Since my surgeon did not do extensive lymph node dissection, I did one calcuation assuming that lymph nodes were NOT involved, and I did another one assuming lymph nodes WERE involved, and the resutls - as you would expect - were radically different.
I believe this is a very valubale tool to assess your risk profile based on your specific disease characteristics.
Like
Helpful
HugInterested in more discussions like this? Go to the Prostate Cancer Support Group.
Connect
I remember doing that and my chances of recurrence were about 25% since I had SVI . 2 years later it came back but at low levels. PSA kept rising until it hit the .2 threshhold , which triggers follow up treatment at MSKCC. I started Orgovyx late March, and 5 weeks of radiation in June. I have a PSA next week so I'm starting my other PSA ( Prostate Specific Anxiety lol ) starting today.
-
Like -
Helpful -
Hug
9 ReactionsThanks for sharing your experience.
Hopefully, your PSA next week is undetectible.
-
Like -
Helpful -
Hug
2 ReactionsThis is really a good way to get an idea about what’s going on with your case. I knew about this and should’ve recommended it to people. Thanks for bringing it up.
Here is a link to the MSK nomograms, which are useful for figuring out what works with your particular prostate cancer case
https://www.mskcc.org/nomograms/prostate
-
Like -
Helpful -
Hug
8 ReactionsThose nomograms are for people that have had RP. Are there any similar nomograms for people that have had radiation treatment?
I guess you didn’t try the link to the site I provided just above. If you did click on it, you would see it gives you the exact option you’re looking for.
I did look at that page originally, and just looked again, and see only option for RP and salvage radiation, not for primary radiation treatment. Am I missing something?
-
Like -
Helpful -
Hug
1 ReactionI looked at the site and saw radiation and didn’t notice that it said salvage radiation. Sorry for the misdirect.
You might call them and ask about this +18445536414.
-
Like -
Helpful -
Hug
1 ReactionOn the other hand, I didn't know they also had a nomogram for salvage radiation therapy. As my BCR rises, this is helpful in my case.
It comes out 76% chance of no recurrence in 6 years. Thanks, Jeff.
-
Like -
Helpful -
Hug
3 ReactionsI would also add that I’ve played around using AI with respect to my recurrence odds. Many of the AI results reference the MSK nomogram page directly.
One thing AI says that the post-RP nomogram doesn’t do well is with respect to decreasing recurrence odds sufficiently if you gone truly undetectable (< 0.01) for an extended period of time. There are numerous studies that show that remaining < 0.01 for two or three years post surgery GREATLY diminishes the chances of a BCR within the next 3-5 years. AI was able to fold that information in for my case and showed 5-7 year recurrence odds much less than the MSK nomogram shows. The AI will adjust for things like cribiform component/ IDC etc. and some other nuances.
I take it all with a grain of salt but it makes sense to me when I look at the papers it referenced to make its decision.
-
Like -
Helpful -
Hug
3 ReactionsGood to know.
Thanks